As I'm sure I've written before (but am far too lazy and disorganized to find out for sure), my friend M.K. Allen has sponsored an Oscar contest for 14 years or more. I won once. Lots enter, with a $1 entry fee, so the award money is fun. The tiebreaker question is always random. I usually get at least 3 right, and in recent years (when, strangely, I rarely see the movies) I've been getting five of the six categories correct with regularity.
This year I'm going with:
Stephen Daldry, Director of The Reader
Heath Ledger (natch)
But Nate Silver, of FiveThirtyEight, has different ideas than I do - see his predictions at NY Magazine. Obvs he has gotten other marquee contests right in the past.
I'll stick with the dark horses (Langella, Daldry) and the red-hot Spaniard (Cruz).
If I win, I'll take you to lunch.